Sunday, August 20, 2017

Should You Trust Climate Science? Maybe the Eclipse Is a Clue

In an article in the NY Times with this title, Justin Gills points out:

Thanks to the work of scientists, people will know exactly what time to expect the eclipse (see Mattox's previous post). In less entertaining but more important ways, we respond to scientific predictions all the time, even though we have no independent capacity to verify the calculations. We tend to trust scientists.
For years now, atmospheric scientists have been handing us a set of predictions about the likely consequences of our emissions of industrial gases. These forecasts are critically important, because this group of experts sees grave risks to our civilization. And yet, when it comes to reacting to the warnings of climate science, we have done little.
Indeed! Wake up folks. Climate change is a real threat, and we must take action very soon.

Chasing the Great American Eclipse in North Carolina

Chasing the Great American Eclipse in North Carolina
John R. Mattox, University of North Carolina System Professor
The Great American Eclipse will encompass America on August 21, 2017, featuring at least a partial eclipse for the entire United States – where the Moon temporarily covers at least a fraction of the Sun’s bright photosphere.
Within a ~70 mile wide “path of total eclipse”, a total eclipse of the Sun can be observed for up to 2 minutes and 40 seconds on 8/21/17, when the Moon covers all of the Sun’s bright photosphere, creating a unique and dramatic viewing opportunity – see this description of the splendor of totality.
The disk of totality comes ashore in Oregon at 10:16 am pdt, travels in a southeasterly direction across the entire USA at an average of 1700 MPH, a supersonic velocity, going offshore 93 minutes later in South Carolina at 2:49 pm edt, touching a dozen states along the way: Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Although a total eclipse is safe to observe with your naked eyes, you need eye protection to observe up until the moment that totality begins, and you need eye protection (e.g., eclipse shades) to observe after the moment that totality ends. If you are not in the path of total eclipse, you need continuous eye protection to observe. During THE PARTIAL STAGES OF THE ECLIPSE (when the bright photosphere of the sun is partially visible) YOU MUST HAVE PROPER EYE PROTECTION to avoid permanent EYE Injury.

Suggestions for Eclipse Chasers

There are millions of us out here, chasing the Great American Eclipse. So it is a good idea to be strategic about where you go! Here is an interactive map showing the path of total eclipse and providing eclipse details for any location you click on (the time given there is UT – subtract 4 hours for EDT). And here is a very useful article: Predicting eclipse visitation with population statistics: https://www.greatamericaneclipse.com/statistics/, that can help you to get a handle on potential problems with traffic congestion.

The potential total eclipse observing site that I was recommending until I came across this analysis was the Santee Indian Mound. It is just west of I-95 at the north end of the Lake Marion (exit 102). There is probably public access to the top of this ancient ceremonial Indian Mound - I was last there 5 years ago. It is nearly at the center of the band of totality.  However, the article referenced above indicates that where I-95 crosses the totality-band, is the nearest Totality viewing site for 74.6 million Americans. I expect it may still be a great place to be for viewing Totality, but I suggest you plan to arrive not later than midnight, 8/20/17, and have food and water for 24 hours.

Here is the prediction from the resource provided above for the Indian Mound:
Lat.: 33.5331° N
Long.: 80.4287° W

Duration of Totality: 2m35.1s
Magnitude: 1.015
Obscuration: 100.00%

Event
Date
Time (UT)
Alt
Azi
Start of partial eclipse (C1) :
2017/08/21
17:15:00.0
68.2°
173.6°
Start of total eclipse (C2) :
2017/08/21
18:43:43.5
61.8°
224.4°
Maximum eclipse :
2017/08/21
18:45:01.2
61.6°
224.9°
End of total eclipse (C3) :
2017/08/21
18:46:18.6
61.4°
225.5°
End of partial eclipse (C4) :
2017/08/21
20:08:00.3
46.9°
249.6°



I’m going to be in the Mountains near Highland, NC. I’m not going to give details here, but I will provide the prediction from the resource provided above:
Lat.: 35.03° N
Long.: 83.2571° W

Duration of Totality: 2m35.9s
Magnitude: 1.013
Obscuration: 100.00%

Event
Date
Time (UT)
Alt
Azi
Start of partial eclipse (C1) :
2017/08/21
17:07:09.1
65.9°
162.4°
Start of total eclipse (C2) :
2017/08/21
18:35:51.4
63.1°
214.0°
Maximum eclipse :
2017/08/21
18:37:09.5
63.0°
214.6°
End of total eclipse (C3) :
2017/08/21
18:38:27.3
62.8°
215.2°
End of partial eclipse (C4) :
2017/08/21
20:01:23.0
49.8°
243.9°

If you live near Fayetteville, where I teach at FSU,




a public viewing of partial eclipse will occur from 2:15 – 3:15 pm, on 8/21/17 in the large open space adjacent to the Planetarium (North of the Lyons Science Building).  Maximum partial eclipse (95%) will occur at 2:45. Eclipse glasses will be provided to the extent that supply allows.  In addition, three solar safe telescopes will be used to observe the Sun during the eclipse. For more information about this event, contact the FSU Planetarium Manager, Joe Kabbes.
Good luck!
John Mattox